Northern Virginia Home Sales June 2009

June 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton:

A total of 2,169 homes sold, 14.2% more than  June 2008 home sales of 1,900 and the 11th consecutive month of higher year-over-year sales.

Active listings decreased by 27 % from last year, with 7,617 active listings in June, compared with 10,440 homes available in June 2008.  The decrease in “inventory,” as we real estate people refer to homes for sale, is becoming somewhat alarming – that’s only 3 1/2 months of inventory.

The average days on market (DOM) for homes in decreased to 71 days, compared with 83 days in June 2008. However, more than half the homes sold in under 30 days.

The average sales price in June fell by 7% from June 2008, to $451,354, while the median price fell 6% to $392,367. These prices are, however, again higher than the preceding month.

And for the 15th straight month, the number of pending home sales increased 17% over the same period last year.

Kim Hannemann, Real Estate Consultant/Realtor®, Samson Properties

Cell: 703-861-9234 • Fax: 703-896-5055 • Email: KimTheAgent@gmail.com

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

4 – 4.5% Listings with First-Class Service — Cash Back to My Buyers!

April 2009 Northern Virginia Sales Info

April 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Clifton, Herndon and Vienna:

• A total of 1,544 homes sold in April 2009, an increase of 6% over April 2008, and the ninth consecutive month of higher year-over-year sales. Terrific, but look at this – pending home sales, based on signed contracts, are 2,692, up 25% from last year! Pending sales have been up double-digits year-over-year for 13 consecutive months.
  
• Active listings – homes on the market – decreased by 23% from last year, with 8,234 active listings at end-April. Fewer homes on the market usually means prices are poised to start rising. The supply of homes remains in the less-than-six-months “seller’s market” range.
• Another sign of strong activity – the average days on market (DOM) for homes in April 2009 decreased by 15% to 85 days, compared with 100 days in April 2008.
• Sales prices continue to remain lower than those realized last year. The average sales price in April fell 16% percent from April 2008 to $405,514, while the median price was $356,750, a decline of 14%. The average and median sale prices are again both higher than last month, however.
• Agents continue to see a lot of multiple-offer situations on attractive well-priced homes in good condition, particularly in price ranges under $475,000. If you are looking for such a home, be prepared to act decisively.

Kim Hannemann, Real Estate Consultant/Realtor®, Samson Realty

Cell: 703-861-9234 • Fax: 703-896-5055 • Email: KimTheAgent@gmail.com

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

4 – 4.5% Listings with First-Class Service — Cash Back to My Buyers!

Will Foreclosures Flood The Northern Virginia Market This Spring?

Just in time for the annual Spring Home Buying Season, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to begin filling the store shelves with a brand-new stock of foreclosed homes. Without fanfare, on March 31 they both ended the four-month moratorium on foreclosure sales and evictions they had imposed on servicers of the mortgages they own.

Fannie Mae said in a brief statement from spokesman Brian Faith that “Fannie Mae’s suspension of foreclosure-related evictions concludes as of March 31, 2009. The company has in place special foreclosure sale requirements that take into account the Making Home Affordable program. A foreclosure sale may not occur on any Fannie Mae loan until the loan servicer verifies that the borrower is ineligible for a Home Affordable Modification and all other foreclosure prevention alternatives have been exhausted.”

Brad German, a spokesman for Freddie Mac, said he was “mystified” as to how anyone could be surprised by the ban’s expiration. The idea behind it was to give the government time to create homeowner rescue plans, and that’s been done, he said. Neither agency also expects a flood of homeowners out on the street because the ban is being lifted, he added. “For all practical purposes, people will be in their homes for a while,” despite the ban’s expiration, German said. Fannie and Freddie will need time to approach tenants and homeowners and figure out whether they are qualified for help, he said.

Still, this raises the possibility of a sizable influx of such homes coming to the market beginning as early as the end of this month. I’ve been noting in my recent posts (here and here) that the local inventory is shrinking when one normally expect it to be rising – perhaps this is one reason why, and we may see increases in inventory soon.

Here are some other comments about the situation:

From a post by Ben Martin today on VARBuzz.com (Virginia Association of Realtors):

Anecdotally, we’re hearing that because of the dearth of foreclosure activity, there’s actually very little inventory in the DC metro area. We hear there are buyers galore, many of them incentivized by the dramatic reduction in prices, low interest rates, and the first time homebuyer stimulus package. But the foreclosure activity is so low (and many sellers are unwilling to list their properties for sale, knowing that they can’t sell for what they need to make from the sale) that there’s very little out there for buyers to choose from.

Many industry experts are expecting a dramatic rise in foreclosures over the coming months as Freddie and Fannie have recently halted their foreclosure moratoriums. As this action trickles down to the field, six months worth of foreclosures could flood the market.

About a month ago, Cindy Jones on VaRealEstateTalk.com:

Last fall Freddie Mac along with other lenders put a moratorium on new foreclosure proceedings until the economic stimulus packages worked their way through Congress. Only those properties that had already been through the foreclosure process made their way to the MLS and not even all of those have been listed.

For example one agent in my office who handles Freddie Mac foreclosures has just now received the go ahead to list a few of the properties that had been through the foreclosure process last October and November. Even more interesting is that in one case the owner of the property is still living in the property five months after the foreclosure. A quick look through RealtyTrac.com shows a few hundred properties with the title transfers to a lender, yet none of them have made it to the market. A recent Friday Washington Post showed close to 300 Trustee Sales at the PW Courthouse alone and those properties haven’t hit the market yet either.

From a comment from “Brooks” on a post from Frank Llosa about the problem on FranklyRealty.com:

Today’s [4/21] Washington Post is actually kind of fat for a Tuesday edition. Then you realize that it sports a rather hefty Classified ads section. The “G” section is a solid 20 pages. But, almost all of it is real estate property foreclosure public notices. They start on page G1 and staggeringly run to page G19. They take up almost as much space as the 24-page “A” news and business section. However, employment ads take up less than one column on G19.

I saw this also, and today’s was pretty thick with them as well. Is this the start of a Sick Newspaper Alleviation Program (SNAP)?

My neighbors and I are all pleased to see that a foreclosed home on our little street sold early this week. Better to get them on the market and sold quickly than to have them sit empty for month after month.

Kim Hannemann, Real Estate Consultant/Realtor®, Samson Realty

Cell: 703-861-9234 • Fax: 703-896-5055 • Email: KimTheAgent@gmail.com

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

4 – 4.5% Listings with First-Class Service — Cash Back to My Buyers!

March 2009 Northern Virginia Sales Info

March 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Clifton, Herndon and Vienna (this sounds like a weather alert, doesn’t it?):

A total of 1,384 homes sold in March 2009, an increase of 11% over March 2008. That’s great, but look at this – pending home sales, based on signed contracts, are 2,306, up a fantastic 33% from last year!

Active listings – homes on the market – decreased by 20% from last year, with 8,069 active listings in March, compared with 10,123 homes available in March 2008. Fewer homes on the market usually means prices are poised to start rising. The supply of homes has again fallen into the under-six-months “seller’s market” range.

Another sign of strong activity – the average days on market (DOM) for homes in March 2009 decreased by 18% to 89 days, compared with 109 days in March 2008.

Sales prices continue to remain lower than those realized last year. The average sales price in March fell 17% percent from March 2008 to $395,512, while the median price was $335,000, also a decline of 17%. Interestingly, though, the average and median sale prices are both about 5% higher than last month.

Agents are reporting a considerable number of multiple-offer situations on foreclosures, and on attractive well-priced homes in good condition, particularly in price ranges under $425,000. If you are looking for such a home, be prepared to act decisively – and, if the home is right for you, don’t let yourself be outbid.

Kim Hannemann, Real Estate Consultant/Realtor®, Samson Realty

Cell: 703-861-9234 • Fax: 703-896-5055 • Email: KimTheAgent@gmail.com

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

4 – 4.5% Listings with First-Class Service — Cash Back to My Buyers!

February 2009 Northern Virginia Sales Info

February 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton:

A total of 1,067 homes sold in February 2009, a 10 % increase above February 2008 home sales of 969.

Active listings decreased by 18 % from last year, with 7,811 active listings in February, compared with 9,497 homes available in February 2008. The average days on market (DOM) for homes in February 2009  to 109 days, compared with 116 days in February 2008.

The average sales price in February fell by 21 % from February 2008, to $380,077, compared with last February’s average of $479,320. The median sales price of homes sold in Northern Virginia in February was $318,000, which is a decline of 23 % compared with February 2008’s median price of $410,500.

The February pending home sales data, based on signed contracts, is bucking the national trend – 1,817 contracts are pending compared to February 2008 when 1,526 were pending, an increase of 19 %.

Things That Make You Say, “Hmmmm . . .”

Looking at the January 2009 data for the housing market in Northern Virginia (Fairfax and Arlington Counties; Falls Church, Fairfax and Alexandria Cities), the year-over-year trends of the past several months are continuing – sales are up (+39%), active listings are down (-16%), pending sales are up (+23%) and sales prices continue to run 20-25% below those of a year ago, and -30% from two years ago. Average days on market is declining but is still in the 100 range (for sold homes).

The absorption rate has picked up from December’s 5-month figure – we have about 7.5 months of homes on the market now, in the low “buyer’s market” range – largely, I think, because a sizable number of sellers were waiting until after the holidays to put their homes on the market.

There is a lot of action in the sub-$300,000 detached home market. Here are some interesting numbers: 

Detached Homes for sale under $300,000:

• January 2008   =   55
• January 2009   =   436

Detached Homes sold under $300,000:

• January 2008   =   8
• January 2009   =   90

Here’s another interesting number:

Homes financed through FHA/VA:

• January 2008   =   39
• January 2009   =   328

So the government guaranteed the mortgages of over 33% of all homes sold in January 2009. In the entire year of 2006, FHA/VA loans totaled 253, or only 1% of sales in Northern Virginia. Wow.

The mortgage market has been volatile and will continue to be, though the federal government will do all it can to hold it down until the economic outlook improves. Rates are now in the 5.4% range for 30-year fixed. The chart from Bankrate.com shows the last 3 months’ rate movements in Virginia.

The government has a lot of things going on – from Congress to the Treasury to the Federal Reserve to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So many are up in the air that it would be foolish to write about them today.

All the more reason to subscribe to my blog!

Kim Hannemann, Real Estate Consultant/Realtor®, Samson Realty

Cell: 703-861-9234 • Fax: 703-896-5055 • Email: KimTheAgent@gmail.com

It’s Good To Have A Friend In The Business®

If you would like to discuss real estate questions, sell or buy a home in Northern Virginia – including Alexandria, Annandale, Arlington, Burke, Centreville, Chantilly, Clifton, Fairfax, Fairfax Station, Falls Church, Kingstowne, Lorton, McLean, Reston, Springfield, or Vienna – contact Kim today.

4 – 4.5% Listings with First-Class Service

December Sales – A Sellers’ Market????

Here’s an update on December real estate sales in Fairfax and Arlington Counties; Falls Church, Fairfax and Alexandria Cities.

The number of home sales (year over year) rose for the fifth consecutive month in December, while the number of homes on the market declined for the fifth month in a row. Pending sales (homes going under contract) rose for the ninth month in a row. We currently have an absorption rate (current inventory/monthly sales) of only 5 months.

Six months is the traditional supply figure for a “balanced” market, so that means . . . a seller’s market??!!

I guess the question is, what’s going to happen now? The winter is usually pretty slow in Northern Virginia real estate, but mortgage rates have been falling (around 5 % right now). The government has been buying mortgage-backed securities, trying to make sure rates stay down – and smart buyers are coming off the fence while sellers are still giving price and other concessions.

Median home sale prices in the area have fallen on the order of 20-25% since last year, to $340,000 – the same level as December 2003!

My own seat-of-the-pants view is that the next few months will be extraordinarily active. Sellers may soon realize that, also. I’ve seen several multiple-offer situations on attractive, well-priced properties.

Sales Up Again In Northern Virginia

The number of home sales (year over year) rose for the fourth consecutive month in November, while the number of homes on the market declined for the fifth month in a row. Pending sales (homes going under contract) rose for the eighth month in a row. We currently have an absorption rate (current inventory/monthly sales) of 7.6 months.

It’s still a buyers market, but it’s starting to turn.

I guess the question is, what’s going to happen now? December is usually a slow month in Northern Virginia real estate, but mortgage rates have been falling (around 5.6% right now). The government has been making noises about trying to push rates down to 4.5% to kick-start the residential home market – so are buyers waiting until they get that low? Is the market anticipating this? What if the government decides it will take too much money – will rates shoot up if it doesn’t happen?

My own seat-of-the-pants view is that most buyers are going to wait until after the holidays, but that January and February will be extremely active – and spring 2009 will see a buying spree. There are sellers aplenty (many not yet in the market) and buyers – in our area – who have been salivating for years but nervous.

Get ready.

Kim’s Big Johnson College Bowl Mania Is Here!

Get In On Kim’s Big Johnson College Bowl Mania!!!

You know if it has three (!!!) exclamation points, and is written in red, it’s gotta be good.

This contest involves choosing the winning team for each of the 34 (yes, now it’s 34!) upcoming college football Bowl Games, to be played between December 20 and January 8. In addition to choosing the winning teams, you have to assign a Confidence Points factor of 1 to 34 to each game – your personal view of how certain you are of the outcome of each game. If you have high confidence in your choice, you give that game a high value; conversely, if you have no idea which team might win, you would assign a low value. If the team you pick wins, you get the points you assigned. For a tiebreaker, you have to guess the score of the BCS Championship game.

The contest will feature a small prize of some sort – probably involving chocolate – to everyone who beats me, and an engraved 8GB iPod Nano (your choice of color) to the top scorer. Second prize is a 1 pound tin of Mrs. Hanes Moravian Sugar Crisp Cookies. Mmmmmmm . . .

If your entry is really hot, you might win something from ESPN, too, but who cares? The Big Johnson is special!

You enter the contest by going to the ESPN website and follow the instructions below. There is no cost. You are welcome to invite your friends – any friend of yours is a friend of mine.

Let me know if you have any other questions.

How To Play College Bowl Mania the Big Johnson Way

Step 1 – REGISTRATION

To enter, fill out the free game registration at the ESPN website. A valid ESPN member name and password will be used as an identifier to sign in to game play, and to keep track of your entry’s score and standing. If you are already a registered ESPN account holder, you do not need to go through the registration process. If you’ve had an ESPN account in the past but forgot your password, visit Member Services and have your account information sent to you.

Step 2 – GAME SETTINGS

After you have signed in, you will be prompted with a screen with a “Create Entry” button. After you click on the button you will be automatically redirected to the “Entry Settings” page where you will be asked to name your entry and decide whether you would like email reminders.

• Name your entry: Use the text box to determine how your entry will be displayed in the game. Use your imagination. Please. 
• Scoring system: Use the radio buttons to select Confidence Points (required for our game).
• Email Reminders: Use the radio buttons to select whether or not you’d like to receive email reminders from ESPN pertaining to game locks and game rules. I will send emails through the ESPN system to the participants about the game, so be sure to read the email account you use to register!

Once you have completed your game settings, click on the “Submit Entry Settings” button.

Step 3 – JOINING THE BIG JOHNSON GROUP

To join the Big Johnson group after you submit your entry settings, click on the words Create Or Join A Group. Search for the group named Big Johnson, and join the group using the password, “kimsentme” (get it? Kim Sent Me?). You can join the group as soon as you create your entry – you don’t have to make any picks first. Let me know if you have any problems getting into the group.

Step 4 – MAKING YOUR PICKS

You won’t be able to make your picks for the games until all the bowl game contestants are known – probably by Wednesday, December 10. Then you will be able to pick your winner for each game, and predict the final team scores of the National Championship Game as the game’s primary tiebreaker. To select the team you think will win, click on the table cell containing the team name or the checkbox next to the team name. Once you’ve made all of your picks, you can “click and drag” the game up or down in the list to change the assigned Confidence Value for that game. The higher the confidence you assign to a bowl game, the more points you will earn if you have selected the winning team. Each game must have a different confidence value assigned to it from 1 to 34. To predict the final team scores of the National Championship Game, enter your predictions in the fields designated as “Score Guess.” Once satisfied with your selected picks, the confidence values for those picks, and the championship game’s score guess, click the “Submit Your Picks” button to enter them.

Register and submit your entry no later than the first kickoff of the first game of the college football bowl season (Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 11:00 am ET) at which point the game will lock and no additional picks can be made. If you change your mind about a game, you can go back and change your picks until the first game starts.

Step 5 – SCORING

In the Confidence scoring system, the higher the confidence you assign to a game, the more points you will earn if you have selected the winning team. If your chosen team wins, you get the points you assigned to that game. You do not lose points for incorrect picks.

Step 6 – JOINING ANOTHER GROUP

You can join up to three (3) different groups with the same entry, not that you will give a hoot. Once you have enjoyed the Big Johnson, all the others are, well, kinda puny. Each user may have up to three (3) different entries – but only ONE entry in the Big Johnson.

Holy Jeez, Another Post About “Why You Should Buy A Home TODAY!”

Every real estate broker, agent, organization and “affiliated business” has been banging the drum for the last few months about how important it is for buyers to get off the bench and into the game now. But is this really good advice, or just marketing hype?

Well, I’m a real estate agent, so what do you think I am going to say? You’re right, but keep reading anyway.

Consider the following:

• Huge efforts are being made by mortgage banks, financially backed and politically demanded by the federal government, to halt the foreclosures that have been occurring in many communities. These efforts take the form of loan restructuring and even partial forgiveness, and include guarantees from the government. The incidence of foreclosures is going to drop substantially.
• Homes that have been on the market in Northern Virginia, especially already foreclosed homes, are rapidly disappearing into the hands of investors and others, who know a buyers market when they see it. (In Prince William County, the foreclosure capital of the Mid-Atlantic, home sales were up 150+%  year-over-year in October.)
• Mortgage funding is plentiful and cheap, and you can buy with a low (or even zero) down payment. You only need good credit and verifiable income.
• Let’s not forget the $7500 tax credit.
• People who don’t own a home would like one; people who own a home would like a better one. There is a huge amount of pent-up demand for homes in the job-rich Northern Virginia area, from people who couldn’t afford to buy in the 2003-06 boom and were too nervous to do it the last two years.

Speaking of booms, look what’s coming:

The housing demands of the Echo Boomers might be greater than that of the original Baby Boomers. Different, perhaps; tempered by different lifestyles, backgrounds and desires; but demand nonetheless. These are largely college-educated, fairly affluent people (in Northern Virginia), and they will want to buy.

You may be among them – in fact, you probably are. You are going to have a lot of competition for a home – unless you get out there in front and stop worrying about whether you buy at the exact bottom of the market.

I think Suze Orman can be a little simplistic, but (in addition to being rich) she has some good points here: